Challenges to the sponsor
- To challenge: 0 statements, GBP 0 of the decision.
- Judged sound: 0.
Executive Intelligence · Advanced Executive Intelligence
Decision Bias and Challenge Agent
Challenges a decision memo by listing unstated assumptions and common biases as questions.
Demonstration: Rosewell Capital Management (fictional) · Asset management. Fictional data and a scripted answer.
The situation
- Organisation
- Rosewell Capital Management (fictional)
- Who is asking
- Chief investment officer
- Industry
- Asset management
- What happened
- The investment committee is about to approve a large position on the strength of a memo, and the chair wants the memo challenged first.
The question asked
Which statements in this decision memo may be shaped by bias, and which are sound?
What it reads, and who can see the result
- Decision memo documentThe memo as written by the sponsor.
- Decision quality checklist documentCommon biases and how they show.
- Reads
- The memo and the checklist.
- Does not read
- Anything outside the memo.
- Permission
- The committee secretary attaches the memo.
- Who sees it
- The committee chair, the sponsor and the challenger.
Try it
Review each flagged record: confirm it or dismiss it. The totals and the answer below follow your decisions.
| Statement in the memo | Possible bias | Basis given | Value resting on it (GBP) | Finding | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation is based on three comparable deals | None | Named comparables | 0 | Matched | None needed |
| The management team has never missed a forecast | Anchoring on a track record | Two years of data | 18,000,000 | Two years is a short record | |
| Downside is limited because the sector is defensive | Confirmation of a favoured view | None cited | 12,000,000 | Asserted without evidence; no downside case shown | |
| Debt is conservative at 2.1 times | None | Audited accounts | 0 | Matched | None needed |
| We have already spent heavily on due diligence, so we should proceed | Sunk cost | Cost of work to date | 9,000,000 | Past spend is not a reason to commit more | |
| Everyone on the team is enthusiastic | Group agreement | No dissent recorded | 6,000,000 | No one was asked to argue the opposite |
- Flagged
- 4 of 6 · GBP 45,000,000
- Challenge it
- 0 · GBP 0
- Sound
- 0 · GBP 0
- Undecided
- 4 · GBP 45,000,000
The answer
Simulated answer. Written for this fictional case, not produced by a live model. Only the figures in it are computed, from what you decided above.
4 of 6 statements show a pattern that can distort a decision, GBP 45,000,000 of the decision resting on them.
The memo's facts are sound where they are sourced; the weaknesses are in its reasoning [S1][S2]. A short track record, a downside asserted rather than shown, a sunk-cost argument and unchallenged enthusiasm are the patterns the checklist is built to find.
You have chosen to challenge 0 statements (GBP 0) and have judged 0 sound (GBP 0); 4 are undecided. A bias flag is a question for the sponsor, not a verdict on the proposal.
Relies on: S1 · Decision memo, new positionS2 · Decision quality checklist
Review and approval
The committee chair decides. Approving sends the challenges to the sponsor to answer before the vote. It does not accept or reject the proposal.
Not ready to approve. 4 flagged statements are still undecided. Confirm or dismiss each one first.
In the product this is a different person with the right permission. Here you play that role to see the rule.
What it produces
Limits of this example
- A pattern is a prompt to ask, not proof of bias.
- A challenge is only as good as the answer it gets.
- This is a scripted demonstration on fictional data. No model was called and no real organisation, person or result is shown.
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